We study the use of discrete choice models in the context of recreation when there may be discrepancy between the anticipated (ex ante) and the experienced quality of site attributes due to imperfect information. Unlike previous literature on the topic, we relax the assumption of risk neutrality. Adopting a model with quasi-linear preferences, we characterize the disparity between ex ante and ex post utility by decomposing expected utility into a term stemming from bias in beliefs and a component representing willingness to pay for reducing uncertainty in site attributes. Our results show that ex post corrections of welfare losses are attenuated by greater dispersion in beliefs about amenities. (JEL D61, Q26)

中文翻译：

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不完全预知的福利：风险规避案例

我们研究了在娱乐环境中离散选择模型的使用，当预期（事前）和体验的场地属性质量之间可能由于信息不完善而存在差异时。与之前关于该主题的文献不同，我们放宽了风险中性的假设。采用具有准线性偏好的模型，我们通过将预期效用分解为一个源于信念偏见的术语和一个表示愿意为减少场地属性的不确定性而支付的费用的组件，来表征事前和事后效用之间的差异。我们的结果表明，福利损失的事后修正会因对便利设施的信念的更大分散而减弱。(JEL D61, Q26)