The impact of flood events on flood risk perception has important implications for policy. Applying a novel dataset featuring the flooding extents from a severe event in Colorado, we disentangle inundated properties from “near misses,” defined as structures not directly flooded but located inside the 100-year floodplain. Using a triple-difference hedonic framework, we show that inundated properties inside the floodplain underwent a decrease in price after the flood, while near misses saw a relative price increase. We speculate that inundated properties are perceived as being riskier and near misses relatively less risky, suggesting the possible influence of the availability heuristic or Bayesian learning. (JEL Q54, Q58)

中文翻译：

---

住房市场的洪水风险认知和重大洪水事件的影响

洪水事件对洪水风险感知的影响对政策具有重要意义。应用以科罗拉多州严重事件的洪水范围为特征的新数据集，我们将淹没的财产与“未遂事件”分开，定义为未直接淹没但位于 100 年泛滥平原内的结构。使用三重差异享乐框架，我们表明洪泛区内被淹没的房产在洪水后价格下降，而未遂事件的价格相对上涨。我们推测，被淹没的属性被认为风险更大，而未遂事件的风险相对较小，这表明可用性启发式或贝叶斯学习的可能影响。(JEL Q54, Q58)