Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of sorting on expected gains. Finally, nonpecuniary factors play an important role, with a sizable share of individuals willing to give up substantial amounts of earnings by not choosing their highest-paying occupation.

中文翻译：

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事前退货和职业选择

使用杜克大学本科生的数据，我们对文献做出了三个主要贡献。首先，我们展示了关于收入信念和选择特定职业的概率的数据对未来收入和职业的信息量很大。其次，我们展示了如何使用信念数据来恢复事前治疗效果及其与个人选择的关系。我们发现不同职业的预期收入存在很大差异，并提供了对预期收入进行排序的证据。最后，非金钱因素发挥着重要作用，相当大一部分人愿意通过不选择收入最高的职业而放弃大量收入。