We study the impact of global food price shocks on local violence across Africa. In food-producing areas, higher prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (“factor conflict”) and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus (“output conflict”). We argue that this difference arises because higher prices increase the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers while simultaneously inducing consumers to appropriate surplus as real wages fall. In areas without crop agriculture, higher prices increase both forms of conflict. We validate our local-level findings on output conflict using survey data. Our findings help reconcile a growing but ambiguous literature on the economic roots of conflict.

中文翻译：

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非洲冲突的经济根源

我们研究了全球食品价格冲击对整个非洲地方暴力的影响。在粮食产区，较高的价格减少了对领土控制的冲突（“要素冲突”），并增加了对盈余分配的冲突（“产出冲突”）。我们认为，这种差异的产生是因为较高的价格增加了生产者为生产者当兵的机会成本，同时随着实际工资的下降，消费者获得了适当的盈余。在没有农作物的地区，较高的价格会加剧两种形式的冲突。我们使用调查数据验证了我们在输出冲突方面的本地调查结果。我们的发现有助于调和越来越多但含糊不清的关于冲突经济根源的文献。