Purpose – This paper investigates whether financial crises could be the indicators of capital outflow waves or vice versa in Korea. Korea has experienced two severe financial crises, which are the Asian Crisis and the global financial crisis. Although there were many variables associated with these two remarkable events, one notable variable was gross capital outflows, which had significantly increased around them. Motivated by existing literature which built theoretical frameworks explaining the relationship between capital flight and financial crises, we examine the empirical evidence for this relationship. Design/methodology – We use panel data from 61 countries including Korea from 1980 to 2009 to study the associations between capital flight and diverse financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises. To be specific, we use the complementary log-log model to see whether capital outflow waves are reliable indicators for domestic financial crises. Findings – The results show, first, that banking, currency, and inflation crises are associated with capital flight. Second, debt crises are also associated with capital flight, but the result is not robust to different specifications. And, third, the positive associations between capital flight and crises are mainly driven by banking flows rather than FDI and portfolio flows. Originality/value – This paper is one of a few studies that investigates domestic (not foreign) investors’ behavior during financial turmoil. Furthermore, theoretical studies which provide contradictory explanations on the movements of gross capital outflows during financial crises emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence in this paper.

中文翻译：

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金融动荡期间韩国经济中的资本外流浪潮：其含义和政策建议

目的–本文研究了金融危机是否可能是韩国资本外流浪潮的指标，反之亦然。韩国经历了两次严重的金融危机，即亚洲危机和全球金融危机。尽管与这两个显着事件相关的变量很多，但其中一个值得注意的变量是资本总流出，在这一点附近，资本流出已经大大增加了。受现有文献的启发，这些文献建立了解释资本外逃和金融危机之间关系的理论框架，我们研究了这种关系的经验证据。设计/方法论–我们使用1980年至2009年来自韩国等61个国家的面板数据来研究资本外逃与银行，货币，债务和通货膨胀危机等多种金融危机之间的关联。再具体一点，我们使用互补对数-对数模型来查看资本外流浪潮是否是应对国内金融危机的可靠指标。调查结果–结果首先显示，银行，货币和通货膨胀危机与资本外逃有关。其次，债务危机也与资本外逃有关，但其结果对于不同的规范并没有足够的依据。第三，资本外逃与危机之间的积极联系主要是由银行流动而不是外国直接投资和投资组合流动驱动的。原创性/价值–本文是研究国内（而非外国）投资者在金融动荡期间的行为的少数研究之一。此外，对金融危机期间资本总流出的运动提供相互矛盾解释的理论研究强调了经验证据在本文中的重要性。