This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on the long-run impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers increased by about 20 percent during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985. Previously established schooling and literacy gains of school-age cohorts as well as reduced poverty in the community overall as of 1991 are generally attenuated but persist in 2000. By 2010 the estimated education and income gains are still positive but typically cannot be distinguished from zero. Children and adolescents of the next generation—born after the extra funding had disappeared—show gains of about 0.06 to 0.10 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s. Available evidence on mechanisms points to a persistent reduction of the student-teacher ratio in local public primary schools throughout the 1990s and 2000s. We also find discontinuities in education levels and incomes of test takers’ parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers.

中文翻译：

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政府间转移支付的长期影响

本文提供了关于暂时增加对巴西地方政府的联邦转移支付的长期影响的回归不连续性证据。从 1982 年到 1985 年底的 4 年间，受益于额外转移支付的社区的收入和支出增加了约 20%。 1991 年普遍减弱，但在 2000 年持续。到 2010 年，估计的教育和收入收益仍然为正，但通常无法与零区分。在 2000 年代末两次全国性考试的整个分数分布中，在额外资金消失后出生的下一代儿童和青少年显示出大约 0.06 到 0.10 个标准差的增益。有关机制的现有证据表明，在整个 1990 年代和 2000 年代，当地公立小学的师生比例持续下降。我们还发现应试者父母的教育水平和收入的不连续性与代际人力资本溢出相一致。