We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration during 2018. In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Therefore, the full incidence of the tariffs has fallen on domestic consumers and importers so far, and our estimates imply a reduction in aggregate US real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We see similar patterns for foreign countries that have retaliated with their own tariffs against the United States, which suggests that the trade war has also reduced the real income of these other countries.

中文翻译：

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2018年关税对价格和福利的影响

我们研究了评估保护主义贸易政策对经济的影响的常规方法。我们通过将这些常规方法应用于特朗普政府在2018年推出的关税中来说明这些常规方法。随着贸易保护的提高，美国经历了中间产品和最终产品价格的大幅上涨，其供应量发生了巨大变化，连锁网络，减少进口品种的供应以及将关税完全转嫁到进口商品的国内价格中。因此，到目前为止，关税的全部产生率已经降到了国内消费者和进口商身上，我们的估计意味着到2018年底，美国实际总收入每月减少14亿美元。