Envisioning the emergence of a new technological paradigm involves several issues, spanning from strategic assessments and managerial actions to design decisions and technology related choices. The present study focuses on this latter perspective, by proposing a model that estimates the success probability of innovative products as a function of design actions. This focus on the design decisions that underlie radical shifts is not conflicting, but complementary to the more traditional perspectives of forecasting that consider environmental variables or process management factors. The model is based on a database of past successful and unsuccessful innovations, which are used to build a logistic regression model, whose evidences can assist both designers and managers. The former get advice on how specific design choices affect product perception and innovation adoption, while the latter are supported in identifying the most promising projects. The model is illustrated through two cases of digital products.

中文翻译：

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用于评估技术范例的决策支持模型

设想新技术范式的出现涉及多个问题，从战略评估和管理行动到设计决策和与技术相关的选择。本研究通过提出一个模型来估算创新产品的成功概率，并将其作为设计行为的函数，从而集中于后者的观点。重点放在根本转变的设计决策上是不冲突的，而是对考虑环境变量或过程管理因素的更传统的预测观点的补充。该模型基于过去成功和不成功的创新的数据库，这些数据库用于构建逻辑回归模型，其证据可以帮助设计人员和管理人员。前者获得有关特定设计选择如何影响产品认知和创新采用的建议，而后者则在确定最有前途的项目方面得到支持。通过两种数字产品案例来说明该模型。