Many factors influence the success of apartment development projects, but it is difficult to quantitatively measure them. In terms of risk control, the five most direct influence factors are sales ratio, unit sale price, financial cost, land cost, and construction cost. These factors will vary during the project, from planning to land purchase to design to sale to construction, and the levels of these factors will also affect project performance. Therefore, it is necessary to dynamically forecast, control and monitor, and manage these factors in order to successfully implement apartment development projects. This study develops a dynamic simulation model to analyze the economic feasibility of apartment development projects. It draws a causal loop diagram of the aforementioned influence factors, develops a simulation model using system dynamics, and verifies the model with a case study of a 1,794-unit apartment development project. Using this simulation model, it is possible to quickly and easily simulate the economic effects of the risk factors that change throughout the project, analyze its economic feasibility, and develop a plan to reduce economic losses, if necessary. The simulation model can also identify the optimal conditions for project feasibility and develop a risk-control model for apartment development projects.

中文翻译：

---

公寓开发项目经济可行性的动态模拟模型

许多因素影响公寓开发项目的成功，但是很难对其进行量化评估。在风险控制方面，五个最直接的影响因素是销售比例，单价，财务成本，土地成本和建筑成本。这些因素在项目期间会有所不同，从规划到土地购买，从设计到销售再到施工，这些因素的水平也会影响项目的绩效。因此，有必要动态地预测，控制和监视以及管理这些因素，以便成功实施公寓开发项目。本研究开发了一个动态仿真模型来分析公寓开发项目的经济可行性。它绘制了上述影响因素的因果关系图，利用系统动力学开发了仿真模型，并以一个1,794个单元的公寓开发项目为例验证该模型。使用此模拟模型，可以快速轻松地模拟整个项目中变化的风险因素的经济影响，分析其经济可行性，并在必要时制定减少经济损失的计划。仿真模型还可以为项目可行性确定最佳条件，并为公寓开发项目开发风险控制模型。