The purpose of this paper is to address the limitations of conventional risk matrix based tools such that both positive and negative connotation of uncertainty could be captured within a unified framework that is capable of modeling the direction and strength of causal relationships across uncertainties and prioritizing project uncertainties as both threats and opportunities.,Theoretically grounded in the frameworks of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM), this paper develops a structured process for assessing uncertainties in projects. The proposed process is demonstrated by a real application in the construction industry.,Project uncertainties must be prioritized on the basis of their network-wide propagation impact within a network setting of interacting threats and opportunities. Prioritization schemes neglecting interdependencies across project uncertainties might result in selecting sub-optimal strategies. Selection of strategies should focus on both identifying common cause uncertainty triggers and establishing the strength of interdependency between interconnected uncertainties.,This paper introduces a novel approach that integrates both facets of project uncertainties within a project uncertainty network so that decision makers can prioritize uncertainty factors considering the trade-off between threats and opportunities as well as their interactions. The ISM based development of the network structure helps in identifying common cause uncertainty triggers whereas the modeling of a BBN makes it possible to visualize the propagation impact of uncertainties within a network setting. Further, the proposed approach utilizes risk matrix data for project managers to be able to adopt this approach in practice. The proposed process can be used by practitioners while developing uncertainty management strategies, preparing risk management plans and formulating their contract strategy.

中文翻译：

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优先考虑项目中相互依存的不确定性

本文的目的是解决传统基于风险矩阵的工具的局限性，以便可以在一个统一的框架中捕获不确定性的正负含义，该统一框架能够对跨不确定性的因果关系的方向和强度进行建模，并对项目不确定性进行优先排序理论上基于贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）和解释性结构建模（ISM）的框架，本文开发了一种结构化的过程来评估项目中的不确定性。所提出的过程在建筑业中的实际应用得到了证明。必须在相互威胁和机遇的网络环境中，根据项目不确定性在网络范围内的传播影响来确定优先级。忽略跨项目不确定性的相互依赖性的优先方案可能会导致选择次优策略。策略的选择应既着眼于确定共同原因不确定性触发因素，又要建立相互关联的不确定性之间的相互依赖性。本文介绍了一种新颖的方法，该方法将项目不确定性的两个方面整合到项目不确定性网络中，以便决策者可以优先考虑不确定因素在威胁与机遇之间以及它们之间的相互作用之间进行权衡。基于ISM的网络结构开发有助于识别常见原因不确定性触发因素，而BBN的建模则可以可视化网络环境中不确定性的传播影响。进一步，提议的方法利用风险矩阵数据供项目经理使用，以在实践中采用该方法。从业人员可以在制定不确定性管理策略，准备风险管理计划和制定合同策略时使用建议的过程。