This research presents a framework that allows project managers to predict the next critical paths (CP(s)) and to take extra care when planning and executing those activities that have the potential to cause changes in a project's current CP(s).,The method presented here is based on an assessment of each activity's contribution to the overall schedule variance, which involves assigning a probability distribution function to each activity duration in the project. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out, which forms the basis of identifying which activity most affects the project completion date and therefore will have the greatest effect in changing the CP.,The authors’ analysis reveals that the most appropriate probability density function (PDF) for the targeted project is the normal distribution. However, the aim of this work is not to determine the most suitable distribution for each activity but rather to study the effect of the activity distribution type on the CP prediction. The results show that the selection of the appropriate probability distribution is very important, since it can impact the CP prediction and estimated project completion date.,This research work proposes a delay analysis scheme which can help the project manager to predict the next CP and to improve performance by identifying which activity is the bottleneck. On the other hand, the simplicity arises from the fact that this method does not require any expensive machines or software to generate results.

中文翻译：

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使用敏感性分析预测关键路径的变化：延迟分析方法

这项研究提出了一个框架，该框架使项目经理可以预测下一条关键路径（CP），并在计划和执行那些有可能导致项目当前CP发生变化的活动时格外小心。本文介绍的方法基于对每个活动对总体进度差异的贡献的评估，其中包括为项目中的每个活动持续时间分配概率分布函数。还进行了敏感性分析，这是确定哪些活动最影响项目完成日期并因此对更改CP的影响最大的基础。作者的分析表明，最合适的概率密度函数（PDF）对于目标项目是正态分布。然而，这项工作的目的不是确定每种活动的最合适的分布，而是研究活动分布类型对CP预测的影响。结果表明，选择合适的概率分布非常重要，因为它会影响CP预测和估计项目完成日期。本研究工作提出了一种延迟分析方案，可以帮助项目经理预测下一个CP并预测通过确定哪个活动是瓶颈来提高绩效。另一方面，该方法不需要任何昂贵的机器或软件即可产生结果，因此变得简单。结果表明，选择合适的概率分布非常重要，因为它会影响CP预测和估计项目完成日期。本研究工作提出了一种延迟分析方案，可以帮助项目经理预测下一个CP并预测通过确定哪个活动是瓶颈来提高绩效。另一方面，简单性来自以下事实：该方法不需要任何昂贵的机器或软件即可产生结果。结果表明，选择合适的概率分布非常重要，因为它会影响CP预测和估计项目完成日期。本研究工作提出了一种延迟分析方案，可以帮助项目经理预测下一个CP并预测通过确定哪个活动是瓶颈来提高绩效。另一方面，简单性来自以下事实：该方法不需要任何昂贵的机器或软件即可产生结果。