Evolution and stationarity are key time series empirical concepts which need theoretical assessment by extant research. This study presents a model to explain brand sales dynamics in emerging markets using two dimensions: sales behavior in time (stationary or evolution) and final position (negative, neutral or positive).,A three-step methodological approach was performed. First, individual brand sales series were classified (stationarity or evolution) after unit root tests. These series were then regressed against a time variable. These two steps enabled a qualitative classification of six proposed positions, ranging from the worst to the best scenario for marketing managers. A final multinomial model identified the marketing effect to these positions.,Descriptive statistics reveal an insignificant prevalence of stationary sales series and a small number of positive brand sales series (ascending or promising). The multinomial model shows that price is negatively associated to positive brand sales positions, the important effect of service strategies and how product decisions can lead to an avoidance of negative positions.,The model is limited to short time series of a unique transactional dataset from a multinational energy company based in Brazil.,The research provides a rational empirical framework to managers involved with decisions regarding brand sales dynamics in emerging markets.,The approach advance into the development of models to uncover conditions for market evolution and stationarity in a context marked by the shortage of data.

中文翻译：

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营销如何平衡优质产品和普通产品之间的斗争？新兴市场中的品牌销售动态

演化和平稳性是关键的时间序列经验概念，需要通过现有研究进行理论评估。本研究提出了一个模型，使用两个维度来解释新兴市场中的品牌销售动态：销售行为（固定或进化）和最终位置（负面、中性或正面）。执行了三步法。首先，通过单位根检验对单个品牌销售系列进行分类（平稳或进化）。然后将这些系列针对时间变量进行回归。通过这两个步骤，可以对六个拟议职位进行定性分类，从最坏到最好的营销经理方案。最终的多项式模型确定了对这些职位的营销效果。描述性统计数据显示，固定式销售系列和少数正面品牌销售系列（上升或有希望）的流行率不显着。多项模型表明，价格与积极的品牌销售地位、服务策略的重要影响以及产品决策如何避免消极地位呈负相关。该模型仅限于来自一个独特交易数据集的短时间序列。总部位于巴西的跨国能源公司。,该研究为参与有关新兴市场品牌销售动态决策的经理提供了一个合理的经验框架。,该方法推进了模型的开发，以揭示在以下背景下市场演变和平稳的条件数据的短缺。