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The Ordinary Business of Macroeconometric Modeling
History of Political Economy ( IF 0.511 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-01 , DOI: 10.1215/00182702-7551852
Roger E. Backhouse , Beatrice Cherrier

The FMP model exemplifies the Keynesian models later criticized by Lucas, Sargent and others as conceptually flawed. For economists in the 1960s such models were “big science”, posing organizational as well as theoretical and empirical problems. It was part of an even larger industry in which the messiness for which such models were later criticized was endorsed as providing enabling modelers to be guided by data and as offering the flexibility needed to undertake policy analysis and to analyze the consequences of events. Practices that critics considered fatal weaknesses, such as intercept adjustments or fudging, were what clients were what clients paid for as the macroeconometric modeling industry went private.

中文翻译:

宏观经济计量建模的普通业务

FMP 模型体现了后来被卢卡斯、萨金特和其他人批评为概念上有缺陷的凯恩斯主义模型。对于 1960 年代的经济学家来说,这种模型是“大科学”,提出了组织以及理论和经验问题。它是一个更大行业的一部分,在该行业中,此类模型后来受到批评的混乱性被认可,因为它使建模者能够以数据为指导,并提供进行政策分析和分析事件后果所需的灵活性。批评者认为致命弱点的做法,例如拦截调整或捏造,是客户在宏观经济计量建模行业私有化时支付的费用。
更新日期:2019-06-01
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