The study investigates the empirical relationship between indirect taxes and economic growth in Pakistan. For estimation, the annual time series data (1974 to 2010) was used. The main purpose of the research is to find the long-run and short-run relationship between indirect taxes and economic growth. Philips Perron and Augmented Dickey fuller unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of every variable in the study. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegrations (developed in 2001) was applied to estimate the long-run and short-run relationship among the variables. Indirect taxes have negative and significant effect on economic growth in long-run while its coefficents in short-run were insignificant. Due to one per cent increase in indirect taxes, economic growth would decrease by 1.68 per cent. ECM coefficient of indirect taxes shows 45 per cent speed of adjustment in a year. According to the research results it is imperative to decrease indirect taxes and increase the direct taxes, if we want to augment the economic growth. Currently, contribution of direct taxes out of total tax revenue is only 33 per cent and the share of indirect taxes is 63 per cent, while it should be reversed if economic growth has to increase.

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税收与​​经济增长：巴基斯坦的实证分析

该研究调查了巴基斯坦间接税与经济增长之间的实证关系。估计时使用了年度时间序列数据（1974 年至 2010 年）。研究的主要目的是找出间接税与经济增长之间的长期和短期关系。使用 Philips Perron 和 Augmented Dickey fuller 单位根检验来检查研究中每个变量的平稳性。用于协整的自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界测试方法（于 2001 年开发）用于估计变量之间的长期和短期关系。间接税长期对经济增长具有显着的负向影响，而其短期影响不显着。由于间接税增加 1%，经济增长将下降 1.68%。间接税的 ECM 系数显示一年内调整速度为 45%。根据研究结果，要促进经济增长，必须减少间接税，增加直接税。目前，直接税占总税收的比重仅为33%，间接税的比重为63%，如果要提高经济增长，就应该反过来。