Purpose To transcend the long-standing debate regarding whether workers are driven into the informal economy by either their involuntary “exclusion” or voluntary “exit” from the formal economy, the purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate the existence of a dual informal labour market composed of an exit-driven “upper tier” and an exclusion-driven “lower-tier” of informal workers, and to explore its policy implications. Design/methodology/approach To do so, data are reported from a 2015 survey of the informal economy conducted in South-East Europe involving 6,019 face-to-face interviews in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia. Findings Identifying a dual informal labour market with three exit-driven informal workers for every exclusion-driven informal worker, a multinomial logit regression analysis reveals that, compared to the exclusion-driven “lower tier”, the exit-driven “upper tier” is significantly more likely to be populated by the formally employed, retired and those not struggling financially. Participation is not affected by the perceived severity of penalties and likely risks of detection, but relative to those in the exclusion-driven “lower tier”, there is a significant correlation between those doing so for exit rationales and their lack of both horizontal trust and vertical trust in formal institutions. Practical implications The outcome is a call to transcend the conventional deterrence approach of increasing the penalties and risks of detection. Instead, to tackle those driven by exit rationales, tackling both the lack of horizontal trust that other citizens are operating in a compliant manner and the lack of vertical trust in formal institutions is advocated. To tackle exclusion-driven informal workers, meanwhile, a focus upon the macro-level economic and social conditions which lead to their participation is required. Originality/value This is the first paper to empirically evaluate the existence of a dual informal labour market and to evaluate its policy implications.

中文翻译：

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解释和解决非正规经济：双重非正规劳动力市场方法

目的为了超越关于工人是被非自愿“排斥”还是被正式退出正规经济而被驱使进入非正规经济的长期争论，本文的目的是提出和评估双重非正规经济的存在。由退出驱动的“上层”和排斥驱动的“下层”的非正式劳动力组成的劳动力市场，并探讨其政策含义。设计/方法/方法为此，2015年在东南欧进行的非正规经济调查报告了数据，涉及保加利亚，克罗地亚和前南斯拉夫马其顿共和国进行了6,019次面对面采访。结论通过对每个排斥驱动型非正规工人确定具有三个退出驱动的非正规工人的双重非正规劳动力市场，多项式logit回归分析表明，与排斥驱动的“下层”相比，退出驱动的“上层”更有可能由正式雇用，退休和财务状况不佳的人组成。参与不受惩罚的严重程度和可能的发现风险的影响，但相对于排斥驱动的“较低层”的参与者而言，这样做对退出理由和缺乏横向信任与信任之间存在显着相关性。对正规机构的垂直信任。实际意义结果是呼吁超越传统的威慑方法，以增加惩罚和检测风险。相反，要解决那些由退出理论驱动的问题，提倡既缺乏对其他公民以合规方式运作的横向信任，又缺乏对正式机构的纵向信任的解决。同时，为了应对排斥驱动的非正式工人，需要关注导致他们参与的宏观经济和社会条件。原创性/价值这是第一篇以经验评估双重非正规劳动力市场的存在并评估其政策含义的论文。