We use the natural experiment of a state lottery scholarship to measure the effect of generous financial aid on graduation rates at New Mexico's flagship public university. During the study period, the scholarship program paid full tuition for eight semesters for any state resident earning a 2.5 grade point average in their first semester at any public two-year or four-year college. We find a significant positive completion effect of 10 percentage points (17.9 percent) for academically well-prepared students that is offset by a large negative effect of 11.6 percentage points (38.8 percent) for less-prepared students. We posit that the scholarship program, which effectively erased the difference in tuition at two- and four-year colleges, may have induced weaker students to take their chances on a more prestigious, yet riskier, academic path.

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基础广泛的功绩援助会改善大学的学习成绩吗？新墨西哥州彩票奖学金的证据

我们使用州彩票奖学金的自然实验来衡量新墨西哥州旗舰公立大学的慷慨资助对毕业率的影响。在研究期间，该奖学金计划为任何在州立两年制或四年制大学就读的第一学期平均成绩达到2.5分的州居民支付了八个学期的全额学费。我们发现，学业成绩良好的学生有10个百分点（17.9％）的显着正面完成效果，而学业成绩差的学生则有11.6个百分点（38.8％）的较大负面效果所抵消。我们认为，奖学金计划有效地消除了两年制和四年制大学的学费差异，它可能促使弱势的学生抓住机会，走上更加享有声望但风险更大的学术道路。