Education policy makers must make decisions under uncertainty. Thus, how they think about risks has important implications for resource allocation, interventions, innovation, and the information that is provided to the public. In this policy brief we illustrate how the standard of evidence for making decisions can be quite inconsistently applied, in part because of how research findings are reported and contextualized. We argue that inconsistencies in evaluating the probabilities of risks and rewards can lead to suboptimal decisions for students. We offer suggestions for how policy makers might think about the level of confidence they need to make different types of decisions and how researchers can provide more useful information so that research might appropriately affect decision making.

中文翻译：

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教育政策决策的适当证据标准

教育政策制定者必须在不确定的情况下做出决定。因此，他们如何考虑风险对资源分配，干预，创新以及向公众提供的信息具有重要意义。在本政策简报中，我们说明了决策制定中的证据标准如何不一致地使用，部分原因是研究结果是如何报告和背景化的。我们认为，评估风险和报酬概率的不一致会导致学生做出次优的决定。我们为政策制定者如何考虑做出不同类型的决策所需的信心水平以及研究人员如何提供更多有用的信息提供建议，以便研究可以适当地影响决策。