We estimate labor market returns to terminal associate's degrees and certificates, with a particular focus on how returns for different credential types evolve over a longer period of time (11 years post entry) than most of the prior literature. We also explore how returns vary depending on labor market conditions and on which labor market outcome metric is used. Using administrative data from Ohio and an individual fixed-effects approach, we find that the value of an associate's degree grows substantially after graduation, and this finding is robust to choice of specification and outcome. The returns to a long-term certificate are flat over time in our main specification, but more sensitive to assumptions about individual-specific earnings trends. Returns to associate's degrees are notably higher in recession years versus pre-recession years. Finally, we find that associate's degrees lead to improved outcomes relative to non-completion across a range of metrics, including higher paying jobs, more stability in employment over time, and a greater likelihood of earning a living wage, while certificates generally pay off via the employment margin and a reduced likelihood of claiming unemployment insurance.

中文翻译：

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社区大学毕业生的劳动力市场轨迹：证书和副学士学位的回报如何随时间演变

我们估计劳动力市场对终端员工的学位和证书的回报，尤其关注与大多数现有文献相比，不同凭证类型的回报在更长的时间段内（入职后11年）如何演变。我们还探讨了回报如何根据劳动力市场状况以及使用哪种劳动力市场结果指标而变化。使用俄亥俄州的行政数据和个人固定效应方法，我们发现副学士学位的价值在毕业后会大幅增长，这一发现对于选择规格和结果非常有帮助。在我们的主要规格中，长期证书的回报随着时间的推移是平坦的，但对有关个人特定收入趋势的假设更为敏感。返回关联 经济衰退时期的s度显着高于经济衰退之前的年份。最后，我们发现，副学士学位在一系列指标上相对于未完成程度改善了结果，包括更高薪工作，随着时间的推移工作稳定性更高以及赚取生活工资的可能性更大，而证书通常通过就业保证金，降低了申请失业保险的可能性。