We explore some recent, and not so recent, developments concerning the use of probability forecasts and their combination in decision making. Despite these advances, challenges still exist. We expand on some important challenges influencing the “goodness†of combined probability forecasts such as miscalibration, dependence among forecasters, and selection of an appropriate evaluation measure while connecting the processes of aggregating and evaluating forecasts to decision making. Through three important applications from the domains of meteorology, economics, and political science, we illustrate state-of-the-art usage of probability forecasts: how they are combined, evaluated, and communicated to stakeholders. We expect to see greater use and aggregation of probability forecasts, especially given developments in statistical modeling, machine learning, and expert forecasting; the popularity of forecasting competitions; and the increased reporting of probabilities in the media. Our vision is that increased exposure to and improved visualizations of probability forecasts will enhance the public’s understanding of probabilities and how they can contribute to better decisions.

中文翻译：

---

概率预测及其组合：研究视角

我们探索了有关概率预测及其在决策中的组合使用的最近（而非最近）发展。尽管取得了这些进步，但挑战仍然存在。我们在影响组合概率预测的“良好性”的一些重要挑战上进行了扩展，例如校准不当，预测者之间的依赖性以及选择适当的评估方法，同时将汇总和评估预测的过程与决策联系在一起。通过气象学，经济学和政治学领域的三个重要应用，我们说明了概率预测的最新用法：它们如何组合，评估并传达给利益相关者。我们希望看到更多地使用和汇总概率预测，尤其是考虑到统计建模的发展，机器学习和专家预测；预测比赛的普及；以及媒体报道可能性的增加。我们的愿景是增加对概率预测的了解并改善其可视化效果，将增强公众对概率及其对更好的决策的贡献的理解。