In this paper, we develop and illustrate a framework for determining the potential value of global catastrophic risk (GCR) research in reducing uncertainties in the assessment of GCR levels and the effectiveness of risk-reduction options. The framework uses the decision analysis concept of the expected value of perfect information in terms of the cost-effectiveness of GCR reduction. We illustrate these concepts using available information on impact risks from two types of near-Earth objects (asteroids or extinct comets) as well as nuclear war, and consideration of two risk-reduction measures. We also discuss key challenges in extending the calculations to all GCRs and risk-reduction options, as part of an agenda for comprehensive, integrated GCR research. While real-world research would not result in perfect information, even imperfect information could have significant value in informing GCR-reduction decisions. Unlike most value of information approaches, our equation for calculating value of informatio...

中文翻译：

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全球巨灾风险（GCR）信息的价值：基于成本效益的GCR降低方法

在本文中，我们开发并说明了一个框架，用于确定全球灾难性风险（GCR）研究的潜在价值，以减少GCR水平评估中的不确定性和降低风险的选择的有效性。该框架从减少GCR的成本效益的角度出发，使用了对完美信息的期望值的决策分析概念。我们使用关于两种类型的近地物体（小行星或灭绝的彗星）以及核战争的撞击风险的可用信息并考虑两种降低风险的措施来说明这些概念。我们还将讨论将计算扩展到所有GCR和降低风险的方案所面临的主要挑战，作为全面，综合GCR研究议程的一部分。虽然现实世界中的研究不会带来完美的信息，即使是不完善的信息也可能在通知减少GCR决策中具有重要价值。与大多数信息价值方法不同，我们用于计算信息价值的方程式包括：