The future transformation of the energy system is a contentious topic, involving a variety of conflicting opinions and interests. In order to structure and evaluate these opinions, we develop a group decision-making process with professional stakeholders and energy experts. The aim of this process is to develop a common objective system for the energy transition and to evaluate four possible energy transition alternatives for Germany until 2030. The stakeholders are involved in every step of the decision-making process – the development of the alternatives, the definition of the objective system, and the final evaluation of the alternatives. We apply Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) to define and structure the objectives of the stakeholders and use Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) to evaluate the preferences of the stakeholders towards these objectives. The results show that a majority of the stakeholders prefers the energy transition alternative, which has the highest ambitions to limit climate change. A minority prefers the pan-European alternative where Germany’s power system is further integrated into the European energy system.

中文翻译：

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使用注重价值的思维和多准则决策来评估能源过渡方案

能源系统的未来转型是一个有争议的话题，涉及各种矛盾的观点和利益。为了构建和评估这些意见，我们与专业的利益相关者和能源专家一起制定了集体决策过程。该过程的目的是为能源转型建立一个共同的目标系统，并评估到2030年德国的四种可能的能源转型替代方案。利益相关者参与决策过程的每个步骤–替代方案的开发，目标系统的定义以及替代方案的最终评估。我们应用价值聚焦思维（VFT）来定义和构造利益相关者的目标，并使用多属性效用理论（MAUT）来评估利益相关者对这些目标的偏好。结果表明，大多数利益相关者更喜欢能源过渡替代方案，该方案具有最大的野心以限制气候变化。少数人更喜欢泛欧洲的替代方案，在这种替代方案中，德国的电力系统进一步融入了欧洲的能源系统。