Human forecasts and other probabilistic judgments can be improved by elicitation and aggregation methods. Recent work on elicitation shows that deriving probability estimates from relative judgment...

中文翻译：

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通过直接和比率概率判断的相干加权来提高准确性

人类的预测和其他概率判断可以通过启发和汇总方法来改进。最近关于启发的工作表明，从相对判断中推导概率估计...