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Eliciting Public Risk Preferences in Emergency Situations
Decision Analysis ( IF 1.703 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-01 , DOI: 10.1287/deca.2018.0371
Ehsan Taheri 1 , Chen Wang 1
Affiliation  

We investigate decisions in the face of emergency situations where potential consequences include loss of life, for example, the choice of methods to rescue a group of people who are trapped in a fire. In particular, we conduct two sets of experiments to depict public risk preferences for potential fatalities in a rescue mission. The first set of experiments asks binary questions on a collection of hypothetical emergency scenarios such as fires, air crashes, and marine accidents. Our results show that people are inclined to choose risky options in emergency situations, indicating risk-seeking behavior. However, we observe no significant decline in the subjects’ willingness to save one more life as the base number of people in danger increases, which contradicts the risk-seeking utility function implied by expected utility theory. We then conduct the second set of experiments to elicit possible distortions of probabilities in addition to the value function of fatalities under prospect theory. The value fun...

中文翻译:

在紧急情况下消除公共风险偏好

我们在面对紧急情况时会调查决策,在紧急情况下潜在的后果包括生命损失,例如,选择救援一群被困在火中的人的方法。尤其是,我们进行了两组实验,以描述公众对救援任务中潜在死亡人数的偏好偏好。第一组实验针对一系列假定的紧急情况(例如火灾,空难和海上事故)提出了二进制问题。我们的结果表明,人们倾向于在紧急情况下选择有风险的选择,这表明了寻求风险的行为。但是,我们发现随着危险人数的增加,受试者挽救更多生命的意愿并未显着下降,这与预期效用理论所隐含的寻求风险的效用函数相矛盾。然后,我们进行第二组实验,以期根据前景理论确定死亡人数的价值函数,并得出可能的概率失真。价值乐趣...
更新日期:2018-12-01
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