Global warming is becoming increasingly evident as greenhouse gas emissions increase worldwide and affect the environment, health and economy. Many Southeast Asian countries face this reality and hence they are concerned about setting and achieving an effective emission reduction strategy. As such, this study analyzes and compares emission reduction targets on selected Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, by using a long-run Regional Dynamic Integrated Model of the Climate and Economy (RdICME). This study considers the comparative outcomes of BAU (Business as Usual: base case) and INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) scenarios for the 40-year period from 2010 to 2050. According to BAU scenario, carbon emissions are projected to gradually increase in all countries; however, if Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand apply their INDC targets as agreed upon in the 2015 Paris Agreement, all three countries will experience significant emissions reductions after 2030. Specifically, by 2050, total emissions will be reduced by 33.88%, 42.50% and 41.68% in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, respectively, if the countries implement their INDCs. According to the INDC targets, all three countries will experience a net reduction of per capita emission intensity by 2030 and onwards; however, Malaysia is projected to face lower marginal damage costs whereas Indonesia and Thailand will face higher marginal damage costs for 2010–2050. This study also finds that the amount of planned investment for INDC emissions reduction is currently insufficient to achieve planned targets. The findings from this study would help country-specific policymakers to oversee the likely gaps to be fulfilled within 2030–2050.

中文翻译：

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到2050年在马来西亚，印度尼西亚和泰国实现INDC的减排目标的比较分析

随着全球温室气体排放量增加并影响环境，健康和经济，全球变暖正变得越来越明显。许多东南亚国家都面临着这一现实，因此他们担心制定和实现有效的减排策略。因此，本研究通过使用长期的气候与经济区域动态综合模型（RdICME），分析并比较了包括马来西亚，印度尼西亚和泰国在内的所选东南亚国家的减排目标。这项研究考虑了从2010年到2050年的40年期间BAU（照常营业：基本案例）和INDC（预期国家自主贡献）情景的比较结果。根据BAU情景，预计所有国家的碳排放量将逐渐增加国家；但是，如果是马来西亚，印度尼西亚和泰国采用2015年巴黎协定所规定的INDC目标，这三个国家都将在2030年后实现大幅度减排。具体而言，到2050年，马来西亚，印度尼西亚的总排放量将分别减少33.88％，42.50％和41.68％。如果这两个国家执行自己的INDC，则分别为泰国和泰国。根据“国家自主贡献”目标，到2030年及以后，这三个国家的人均排放强度将净减少。但是，马来西亚预计将面临较低的边际破坏成本，而印度尼西亚和泰国在2010-2050年将面临较高的边际破坏成本。这项研究还发现，用于减少国家自主贡献的计划投资目前不足以实现计划目标。