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Cost and benefits of climate change in Switzerland
Climate Change Economics ( IF 1.341 ) Pub Date : 2019-05-01 , DOI: 10.1142/s2010007819500052
FRANK VÖHRINGER 1, 2, 3 , MARC VIELLE 1 , PHILIPPE THALMANN 1 , ANITA FREHNER 1, 4, 5 , WOLFGANG KNOKE 1, 6 , DARIO STOCKER 1, 3, 7 , BORIS THURM 1
Affiliation  

Understanding the economic magnitude of climate change (CC) impacts is a prerequisite for developing adequate adaptation strategies. In Switzerland, despite new climate scenarios and impact studies, only few impacts have been monetized. Our objective is to assess costs and opportunities of CC for Switzerland by 2060, while enhancing the assessment methods. Using inputs from bottom-up impact studies, we simulate the economic consequences of climate scenarios in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. We cover health, buildings/infrastructure, energy, water, agriculture, tourism, the spill-overs to other sectors, and international effects. Due to data constraints, significant impacts have not been quantified, e.g., for heat waves and droughts more extreme than the 2060 average climate. For the considered impacts, welfare decreases by 0.37% to 1.37% in 2060 relative to a reference without CC. Higher summer temperatures increase mortality and decrease productivity. Contrariwise, tourism benefits from extended summer seasons. Regarding energy, increased demand for cooling is overcompensated by savings in heating.

中文翻译:

瑞士气候变化的成本和收益

了解气候变化(CC)影响的经济规模是制定适当的适应策略的前提。在瑞士,尽管有新的气候情景和影响研究,但货币化的影响很小。我们的目标是到2060年评估瑞士CC的成本和机会,同时加强评估方法。使用自下而上的影响研究的输入,我们在可计算的一般均衡(CGE)框架中模拟气候情景的经济后果。我们涵盖了健康,建筑/基础设施,能源,水,农业,旅游业,对其他行业的溢出以及国际影响。由于数据的限制,尚未对重大影响进行量化,例如,对于比2060年平均气候更为极端的热浪和干旱。对于所考虑的影响,福利减少0。相对于没有CC的参考,2060年为37%至1.37%。夏季较高的气温会增加死亡率,并降低生产率。相反,旅游业受益于延长的夏季。关于能源,冷却需求的增加因节省热量而被过度补偿。
更新日期:2019-05-01
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