According to conventional wisdom, capital flows are fickle. Focusing on emerging markets, we ask whether this conventional wisdom still holds in our contemporary world. Our results show that, despite recent structural and regulatory changes, much of it survives. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are more stable than non-FDI inflows. Within non-FDI inflows, portfolio debt and bank-intermediated flows remain the most volatile. Whereas FDI inflows are driven mainly by pull factors, portfolio debt and equity are driven mainly by push factors; bank-intermediated flows are driven a combination of push and pull factors. Capital outflows from emerging markets behave differently, however. FDI outflows from emerging markets have grown and become significantly more volatile. There is similarly an increase in the volatility of bank-intermediated capital outflows from emerging markets. Our findings underscore that outflows from emerging markets, both FDI and bank-related flows, have come to play a growing role and warrant greater attention from analysts and policymakers.

中文翻译：

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资本流动变化无常？日益？答案是否仍然取决于类型？

根据传统观点，资本流动是变化无常的。着眼于新兴市场，我们询问这种传统智慧是否仍然适用于我们的当代世界。我们的结果表明，尽管最近发生了结构和监管变化，但其中大部分仍然存在。外国直接投资 (FDI) 流入比非 FDI 流入更稳定。在非 FDI 流入中，投资组合债务和银行中介流量仍然是最不稳定的。FDI 流入主要受拉动因素驱动，而投资组合债务和股权主要受推动因素驱动；以银行为中介的资金流动是由推拉因素共同驱动的。然而，新兴市场的资本外流表现不同。来自新兴市场的 FDI 流出量已经增长并且变得更加不稳定。同样，新兴市场的银行中介资本流出的波动性也在增加。我们的研究结果强调，新兴市场的流出，包括外国直接投资和银行相关的流动，已经开始发挥越来越大的作用，值得分析师和政策制定者给予更多关注。