This study evaluates the possible impact of an import substitution strategy recently implemented by the Government of Indonesia on the development of the intermediate inputs industry. Based on descriptive analysis, the study suggests that the implementation of the strategy was a misguided decision. Experiences from several countries confirm the negative impact of an import substitution strategy. The econometric analysis shows that trade protection impedes firms’ performance. Thus, it would be preferable for the government to have an open trade regime and to intensify foreign presence in the industry.

中文翻译：

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21 世纪印度尼西亚难以捉摸的进口替代追求

本研究评估了印度尼西亚政府最近实施的进口替代战略对中间投入品行业发展的可能影响。根据描述性分析，该研究表明该战略的实施是一个错误的决定。几个国家的经验证实了进口替代战略的负面影响。计量经济学分析表明，贸易保护阻碍了企业的绩效。因此，政府最好有一个开放的贸易制度并加强外国在该行业的存在。