This study uses the Caliendo and Parro (2015) multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages to assess the impact on welfare of higher tariffs due to the U.S.–China trade war in the case of the Philippines. A sample of 65 countries including a constructed rest of the world is used, with 31 ICIO tradeable and non-tradeable sectors and 2015 as the base year. The constructed scenario is of the U.S.–China tariff tit-for-tat and retaliatory measures taken by Mexico, Canada, EU, Russia, and Turkey against the United States during 2018. The findings show that the Philippines and others in the sidelines could incur larger welfare losses than those directly involved in the conflict, in contrast with the sanguine prediction of other models.

中文翻译：

---

贸易战和全球贸易体系的混乱：对菲律宾的影响

本研究使用 Caliendo 和 Parro (2015) 多部门、多国、一般均衡李嘉图贸易模型与国内和国际投入产出联系来评估由于中美贸易战导致的高关税对福利的影响。菲律宾的情况。使用了 65 个国家的样本，包括构建的世界其他地区，其中 31 个 ICIO 可贸易和不可贸易部门，以 2015 年为基准年。构建的情景是墨西哥、加拿大、欧盟、俄罗斯和土耳其在 2018 年对美国采取的中美关税针锋相对和报复措施。 调查结果表明，菲律宾和其他处于观望状态的国家可能会招致与直接参与冲突的人相比，福利损失更大，这与其他模型的乐观预测形成鲜明对比。