This article reviews methods for extracting both risk-neutral and physical density forecasts for interest rates. It presents some applications, with particular focus on issues pertaining to forward guidance and the zero lower bound. Several important applied questions in macroeconomics and monetary economics can be very directly addressed using the wealth of information in interest-rate derivative securities.

中文翻译：

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利率分布的前瞻性估计

本文介绍了提取利率中性风险和自然密度预测的方法。它介绍了一些应用程序，特别关注与前向指导和零下限有关的问题。利用利率衍生证券中的大量信息，可以非常直接地解决宏观经济学和货币经济学中几个重要的应用问题。