Early Career Teacher (ECT) turnover is a critical issue; the teacher turnover rate is significantly higher among ECTs as compared with experienced teachers, and they are more likely to fill vacancies in hard-to-staff schools. This study examines how principal leadership might affect ECT turnover by using a large-scale, nationally representative data set, the Beginning Teacher Longitudinal Survey (BTLS). Using a discrete survival analysis, the author showed that ECT turnover in terms of leaving one’s school was indeed substantial. More importantly, principal leadership had a consistent negative association with the odds of ECTs leaving their school during the first five years. Among various aspects of principal leadership, principal leadership related to student behavior management had the strongest association with ECT turnover. In contrast, the association between principal leadership and ECTs leaving the profession was not significant. This study provides empirical evidence of the importance of principal leadership in reducing ECT turnover.

中文翻译：

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校长领导似乎如何影响早期职业教师的流动

早期职业教师 (ECT) 更替是一个关键问题；与经验丰富的教师相比，ECT 的教师更替率明显更高，而且他们更有可能填补人员短缺学校的空缺。本研究使用大规模、具有全国代表性的数据集，即初级教师纵向调查 (BTLS)，研究了校长领导如何影响 ECT 离职率。作者使用离散生存分析表明，就离开学校而言，ECT 周转率确实很大。更重要的是，校长领导与 ECT 在前五年离开学校的几率始终呈负相关。在校长领导的各个方面中，与学生行为管理相关的校长领导与 ECT 更替的关联最强。相比之下，主要领导和 ECT 离开该行业之间的关联并不显着。这项研究提供了主要领导在减少 ECT 人员流动方面的重要性的经验证据。