We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.

中文翻译：

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商业周期解剖

我们提出了剖析宏观经济时间序列的新策略，为商业周期传播机制提供了最能描述数据的模板，并使用其属性来评估简约和中等规模的模型。我们的发现支持存在主要的商业周期驱动因素，但排除了以下候选者的角色：与TFP运动相对应的技术或其他冲击；有关未来生产力的新闻；和教科书类型的通货膨胀需求冲击。旨在在不严格依赖名义刚性的情况下适应需求驱动的周期的模型似乎很有希望。