We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary's late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causes higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into an output multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67. The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currency debt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets.

中文翻译：

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家庭债务重估与实体经济：来自外币债务危机的证据

我们通过利用匈牙利2008年末货币危机期间家庭外币债务敞口的变化来研究家庭债务负担突然增加的后果。债务负担的重估导致更高的违约率和支出崩溃。这些应对措施导致当地需求下降，并导致附近无借款外币借款人的负面溢出效应，导致当地经济恶化。估计数相当于1.67美元的较高还本付息的产出乘数。当外币债务集中在家庭而不是公司的资产负债表上时，债务重估的影响尤其严重。