I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC’s) forward guidance language shapes the private sector’s responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and an increase in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to increase, Treasury term premia to fall, and GDP growth forecasts to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinations, and an increase in the expected federal funds rate path had the opposite effects. These results suggest that forward guidance that emphasizes economic outlook risks causes stronger information effects than forward guidance that emphasizes policy inclinations.

中文翻译：

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美联储早期指导中的政策语言和信息影响

我表明，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）前瞻性指导语言的性质决定了私营部门对货币政策声明的回应。从2000年2月到2003年6月，联邦公开市场委员会仅就经济前景风险给出了指导，预期联邦基金利率路径的增加导致股票价格上涨，国债期限溢价下降，GDP增长预期上升。从2003年8月到2006年5月，联邦公开市场委员会增加了有关政策倾向性的前瞻性指导，而预期联邦基金利率路径的增加却产生了相反的效果。这些结果表明，强调经济前景风险的前瞻性指南比强调政策倾向的前瞻性指南具有更强的信息效果。