Better understanding of the ecological and socioeconomic determinants of land-use change is a key to achieve more sustainable development and conservation objectives. Long-term studies on the ability of regenerated secondary forests to sustain biodiversity compared with primary forests have been little explored. South Korea has experienced rapid urbanization and rapid forest regeneration. In this study, we asked two questions: (1) Does secondary forest development alleviate the negative impacts of urbanization on an apex predator; and (2) Can we elucidate a land use planning balance between urbanization and biodiversity conservation using scenario analysis? We studied the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) population in South Korea. We applied generalized linear mixed models to five national otter surveys from 1994 to 2019 with 18 environmental variables. Based on the most parsimonious model, we developed 10 scenarios with three patterns of urbanization (dispersed, clustered, and no further urbanization) with or without forest development or with forest degeneration. The most parsimonious model showed that otter occurrences steadily increased with greater forest density, but were negatively correlated with the percentage of urban areas. The scenarios suggested that diffused urban development had a less negative impact on otter distribution than clustered urban areas. Developed forests considerably alleviated the negative impacts of urbanization. In sample sub-basins, scenarios showed that even without further urbanization, otters will take more than six years to occur with the current forest development trends. Hence, sustainable urban planning should include strategic spatial planning for forest development and preservation.

更好地了解土地利用变化的生态和社会经济决定因素是实现更可持续的发展和保护目标的关键。与原始森林相比，关于再生次生森林维持生物多样性的能力的长期研究很少进行。韩国经历了快速的城市化和快速的森林更新。在这项研究中，我们提出了两个问题：（1）次生林开发是否减轻了城市化对先头动物的负面影响；（2）我们可以通过情景分析来阐明城市化与生物多样性保护之间的土地利用规划平衡吗？我们研究了欧亚水獭（Lutra lutra）的人口。我们将广义线性混合模型应用于1994年至2019年的5个国家水獭调查中，这些调查具有18个环境变量。在最简约的模型的基础上，我们开发了10种情景，其中包括有或没有森林发展或森林退化的三种城市化模式（分散，聚集和没有进一步的城市化）。最简约的模型表明，水獭的发生率随着森林密度的增加而稳步增加，但与城市面积的百分比呈负相关。情景表明，分散的城市发展对水獭分布的负面影响要小于集聚的城市地区。发达的森林大大减轻了城市化的负面影响。在样本流域中，情景表明即使没有进一步的城市化，根据目前的森林发展趋势，水獭将花费六年以上的时间。因此，可持续的城市规划应包括森林开发和保护的战略空间规划。