Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocks on inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explained by changes in oil price. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation drives this effect. We also find that, under the most likely scenarios, 1-year ahead total inflation will be moderate, with relevant differences across regions.

中文翻译：

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西班牙国家和地区层面的油价传导至通胀

近几年油价出现剧烈波动，重新引起人们对其对通胀影响的兴趣。在本文中，我们在国家和地区层面讨论了西班牙石油价格与通货膨胀之间的关系，并区分了能源和非能源通货膨胀。为此，我们拟合了计量经济学模型来衡量油价冲击对通胀的影响，并在不同情景下进行预测。我们的研究结果表明，几乎一半的总通胀变化的波动是由油价的变化来解释的。正如可以预料的那样，通货膨胀的能源成分推动了这种效应。我们还发现，在最有可能发生的情况下，未来 1 年的总体通胀将温和，不同地区之间存在相关差异。