Consumers regularly have to choose between a pay-per-use and a flat-rate option. Due to the increasing number and range of (digital) services, the frequency at which consumers have to make tariff-choice decisions to use these services has become even more prevalent. Prior work has demonstrated that consumers’ tariff choices are often systematically biased and identified overconfidence as one of the key drivers. Yet, prior research is non-experimental and focused on the so-called flat-rate bias. By contrast, we examine the effects of overconfidence on the choice between a pay-per-use and a flat-rate option using an experimental approach. We develop an incentive-compatible experiment to provide causal evidence for the effect of overconfidence on tariff-choice decisions. We find that overconfident (underconfident) consumers underestimate (overestimate) their actual usage, which leads them to choose a pay-per-use (flat-rate) option relatively more frequently. Based on the results, we discuss theoretical and managerial implications as well as avenues for future research.

消费者通常必须在按使用付费和固定费用选项之间进行选择。由于（数字）服务的数量和范围不断增加，消费者必须做出选择使用这些服务的关税选择决定的频率变得更加普遍。先前的工作表明，消费者的关税选择通常会受到系统性偏见，并将过度自信视为主要驱动力之一。然而，先前的研究不是实验性的，而是集中在所谓的统一利率偏差上。相比之下，我们使用实验方法研究了过度自信对按使用量付费和固定费率选择之间的选择的影响。我们开发了一个激励兼容的实验，以为过度自信对关税选择决策的影响提供因果证据。我们发现，过分自信的消费者（低估了自信）低估了（高估）他们的实际使用情况，这导致他们相对频繁地选择按使用付费（统一费率）选项。基于结果，我们讨论了理论和管理意义以及未来研究的途径。