In this paper, I study the short-run effect of social distancing due to the COVID-19 outbreak on movie demand and box-office revenue. Using longitudinal data on the Korean movie theater industry, I first estimate a nested logit model of movie demand, and then quantify the revenue loss in the industry. Estimation results reveal that the revenue loss due to the decrease in underlying movie demand is approximately 52 million dollars nationwide during the first five weeks after the outbreak, implying a 34 percent decrease in sales. The results also suggest an additional 42 million dollars were lost as the delay of some major movies lowered the overall quality of available movies in the market.

在本文中，我研究了 COVID-19 爆发导致的社交距离对电影需求和票房收入的短期影响。利用韩国电影院行业的纵向数据，我首先估计了电影需求的嵌套 Logit 模型，然后量化了该行业的收入损失。测算结果显示，疫情爆发后的前五周内，全国范围内因电影基础需求下降而造成的收入损失约为 5200 万美元，意味着销售额下降了 34%。结果还表明，由于一些主要电影的推迟上映降低了市场上可用电影的整体质量，因此额外损失了 4200 万美元。