Our research estimates COVID-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July 27, 2020, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of July 27, 2020, the cumulative confirmed number of cases was about 4.2 million with almost 300,000 of them entailing hospitalizations. Due to data collection limitations the confirmed totals reported by the CDC undercount the actual number of cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. Using standard assumptions provided by the CDC, we estimate that as of July 27, 2020, the actual number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is about 47 million with almost 1 million involving hospitalizations. Applying value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates from the Department of Transportation (DOT), we estimate an overall non-fatal unadjusted valuation of $2.2 trillion for the U.S. with a weighted average value of about $46,000 per case. This is almost 40% higher than the total valuation of $1.6 trillion (using about $11 million VSL from the DOT) for all approximately 147,000 COVID-19 fatalities. We also show a variety of estimates that adjust the non-fatal valuations by the dreaded and uncertainty aspect of COVID-19, age, income, and a factor related to fatality categorization. The adjustments show current overall non-fatal valuations ranging from about $1.5 trillion to about $9.6 trillion. Finally, we use CDC forecast data to estimate non-fatal valuations through November 2020, and find that the overall cumulative valuation increases from about $2.2 trillion to about $5.7 trillion or to about 30% of GDP. Because of the larger numbers of cases involved our calculations imply that non-fatal infections are as economically serious in the aggregate as ultimately fatal infections.

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被遗忘的数字：仔细研究 COVID-19 的非致命估值

我们的研究使用美国疾病控制与预防中心 (CDC) 提供的 2020 年 1 月 22 日至 2020 年 7 月 27 日累积病例和住院的详细数据来估计美国 COVID-19 非致命经济损失。截至2020年7月27日，累计确诊病例约420万例，其中近30万例需要住院治疗。由于数据收集限制，CDC 报告的确认总数低估了美国的实际病例数和住院人数使用 CDC 提供的标准假设，我们估计截至 2020 年 7 月 27 日，累计 COVID-19 病例的实际数量在美国，大约有 4700 万，其中近 100 万涉及住院治疗。应用交通部 (DOT) 的每个统计寿命 (VSL) 和相对严重程度/伤害估计值，我们估计美国未经调整的整体非致命估值为 2.2 万亿美元，加权平均值约为每箱 46,000 美元。这比所有约 147,000 例 COVID-19 死亡的总估值 1.6 万亿美元（使用 DOT 的约 1100 万美元 VSL）高出近 40%。我们还展示了各种估计，这些估计通过 COVID-19 的可怕和不确定性方面、年龄、收入以及与死亡分类相关的因素来调整非致命估值。调整显示当前整体非致命估值从约 1.5 万亿美元到约 9.6 万亿美元不等。最后，我们使用 CDC 预测数据来估计到 2020 年 11 月的非致命估值，并发现总体累计估值从约 2.2 万亿美元增加到约 5.7 万亿美元或 GDP 的 30% 左右。