Sales forecasting plays an important role in guiding the sales and marketing of e-commerce enterprises, and warehousing department planning warehouse location. At the same time, sales data can better reflect future sales trends. This paper establishes a sales forecasting and analysis model for commodities with common characteristics using their historical sales data through time series model, and forecasts the sales inventory of a certain kind of products from a quantitative point of view. In order to improve the predictive reliability, this paper introduces external observable data and qualitative analysis of historical data prediction model by using hidden Markov model to predict the characteristics of hidden values, so as to further improve the reliability of prediction model.

销售预测在指导电子商务企业的销售和营销以及仓储部门计划仓库位置方面起着重要作用。同时，销售数据可以更好地反映未来的销售趋势。通过时间序列模型，利用历史销售数据建立具有共同特征的商品的销售预测和分析模型，并从定量的角度预测某种商品的销售库存。为了提高预测的可靠性，本文介绍了外部可观测数据和历史数据预测模型的定性分析，利用隐马尔可夫模型对隐含值的特征进行预测，从而进一步提高了预测模型的可靠性。