Understanding the distributional impacts of market-based climate policies is crucial to design economically efficient climate change mitigation policies that are socially acceptable and avoid adverse impacts on the poor. Empirical studies that examine the distributional impacts of carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidy reforms in different countries arrive at ambiguous results. To systematically determine the sources of variation between these outcomes, we apply an ordered probit meta-analysis framework. Based on a comprehensive, systematic and transparent screening of the literature, our sample comprises 53 empirical studies containing 183 effects in 39 countries. Results indicate a significantly increased likelihood of progressive distributional outcomes for studies on lower income countries and transport sector policies. The same applies to study designs that consider indirect effects, demand-side adjustments of consumers or lifetime income proxies.

理解基于市场的气候政策的分配影响对于设计经济上有效的减缓气候变化政策至关重要，该政策应为社会所接受，并避免对穷人产生不利影响。检验碳定价和化石燃料补贴改革在不同国家中的分布影响的实证研究得出了模糊的结果。为了系统地确定这些结果之间的差异来源，我们应用了有序的概率元分析框架。基于对文献的全面，系统和透明的筛选，我们的样本包括53个经验研究，其中包含39个国家的183种影响。结果表明，对低收入国家和运输部门政策进行研究的渐进式分配结果的可能性大大增加。