This research crucially investigates COVID-19 variables’ impacts on the changing distributions of travel and leisure industry returns across 65 countries via a quantile regression model that uses daily data from December 2019 to May 2020 to provide early evidences from a panel of countries. We find that the change rate in COVID-19 deaths exerts more substantial negative effects on industry returns at majority quantiles than does the impact from the number of confirmed cases. The latter number only saliently and negatively influences the lowest return quantiles, revealing a nonlinear effect of confirmed cases. The study identifies a V-shape correlation between the number of cases recovered and travel and leisure industry returns (i.e. a negative impact at the lower quantiles, but a positive impact at higher quantiles) across return quantiles. This likely denotes that confirmed cases grow exponentially and that their effect may overwhelm the impact of the number of recovered cases. Lastly, this study presents a positive correlation between government response stringency index and returns.

这项研究通过分位数回归模型严谨地研究了COVID-19变量对65个国家/地区旅行和休闲行业收益变化的分布的影响，该模型使用2019年12月至2020年5月的每日数据提供了一组国家的早期证据。我们发现，COVID-19死亡的变化率对大多数分位数的行业回报产生的负面影响要比确诊病例数带来的影响更大。后一个数字仅对最低回报分位数产生显着和负面影响，显示出已确认病例的非线性影响。该研究确定了回收的案件数量与旅游业和休闲业回报之间的V形相关性（即对较低分位数的负面影响，对较高分位数的正面影响）。这可能表明已确诊的病例呈指数增长，其影响可能会超过已恢复病例数的影响。最后，本研究提出了政府反应严格指数与收益之间的正相关关系。