This paper compares the predictive accuracy and efficiency of college football point spreads for regular and bowl games. We find that the betting line spread is more accurate as a predictor of the eventual winner for college football games during the regular season than for the bowl games. Although the betting market is mostly efficient with regard to the favorite covering the spread, we do find several inefficiencies in the betting market for regular and bowl games within transaction costs. Specifically, we find the betting market to be an inefficient processor of momentum effects, particularly negative momentum.

中文翻译：

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高校足球传播的预测能力：常规赛与碗赛

本文比较了常规足球比赛和保龄球比赛的大学橄榄球积分的预测准确性和效率。我们发现，在常规赛中，比起碗球比赛，下注线差更准确地预测了大学橄榄球比赛的最终获胜者。尽管就喜欢的点差而言，博彩市场大部分都是有效的，但我们确实发现常规交易和保龄球比赛的博彩市场在交易成本内存在一些低效率。具体而言，我们发现博彩市场不能有效地处理动量效应，尤其是负动量。