Declines in the scores of Australian 15-year-old students from the Programme for International Student Assessment are a matter of policy interest. Some of the declines may have resulted from shifts in the age-grade distributions of students in the Programme for International Student Assessment samples. We use multiple regression methods to model the student-level effects of grade for each Programme for International Student Assessment cycle allowing for the effects of student characteristics (e.g. socioeconomic background and gender) and jurisdiction. We estimate an average net effect of grade over the Programme for International Student Assessment cycles since 2006 as 42 scale points with no difference between reading and mathematics. We explore the extent to which differences between grades in achievement and changes in the grade distributions of students contributed to changes in average Programme for International Student Assessment achievement scores. We conclude that the relatively greater decline in Grade 11, compared to Grade 10 achievement, contributed to the overall decline and that shifts in distributions may have also contributed a little to those declines.

中文翻译：

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学生成绩是否有助于澳大利亚国际学生评估计划阅读和数学的下降趋势？

来自国际学生评估计划的澳大利亚 15 岁学生的分数下降是一个政策利益问题。部分下降可能是由于国际学生评估项目样本中学生年龄年级分布的变化。我们使用多元回归方法来模拟每个国际学生评估周期项目的学生级别影响，考虑到学生特征（例如社会经济背景和性别）和管辖权的影响。我们估计自 2006 年以来国际学生评估计划周期的平均净效应为 42 个量表点，阅读和数学之间没有差异。我们探讨了成绩等级之间的差异和学生成绩分布的变化对国际学生评估计划平均成绩分数变化的影响程度。我们得出的结论是，与 10 年级的成绩相比，11 年级相对较大的下降导致了整体下降，而且分布的变化也可能对这些下降有一点贡献。