The life-cycle model predicts an association between increased demand for retirement saving and the level of expected future social security benefits. The precautionary saving model shows that the risk associated to future benefits also matters. If social security benefits become more uncertain, individuals should react by increasing their demand for retirement saving. To assess the empirical relevance of this mechanism, we relate individual level measures of social security risk to demand for retirement saving vehicles. Using the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth, we find higher participation in private pension funds among individuals who expect lower and more uncertain social security benefits.

中文翻译：

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社会保障不确定性与退休储蓄需求

生命周期模型预测了退休储蓄需求增加与预期未来社会保障福利水平之间的关联。预防性储蓄模型表明，与未来收益相关的风险也很重要。如果社会保障福利变得更加不确定，个人应该通过增加对退休储蓄的需求来做出反应。为了评估这种机制的经验相关性，我们将个人层面的社会保障风险测量与对退休储蓄工具的需求联系起来。使用意大利银行的家庭收入和财富调查，我们发现在期望较低和更不确定的社会保障福利的个人中，私人养老基金的参与度更高。