Despite recent research evidence that an increased share of immigrants in an area causes an increase in anti‐immigrant‐party votes, the electoral impact of exposure to immigration appears virtually non‐existent—or even contrary—in urban areas. This study thus reassesses the latter using disaggregated data for Milan, Italy's second‐largest city. The spatial scale of the analysis addresses the possible bias from aggregating neighbourhoods that are experiencing different immigration inflows. Using a sharp measure of anti‐immigration vote and a new instrumental variable to address the possible endogeneity of immigrant share, I find that exposure to immigration has a positive effect on anti‐immigration‐party votes even in urban contexts. These results are of possible major interest to moderate political forces and European institutions and could usefully guide policy‐makers in designing immigrant location policies.

中文翻译：

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宽容还是隔离？城市地区的移民和选举结果

尽管最近的研究证据表明，某个地区移民的增加会导致反移民政党的选票增加，但在城市地区，暴露于移民的选举影响实际上并不存在，甚至是相反的。因此，本研究使用意大利第二大城市米兰的分类数据重新评估了后者。分析的空间尺度解决了正在经历不同移民流入的聚集社区的可能偏见。通过使用严格的反移民投票措施和新的工具变量来解决移民份额可能的内生性，我发现即使在城市环境中，接触移民也会对反移民政党的投票产生积极影响。