Abstract A shelter-in-place order (SIPO) is one of the most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions designed to curb the spread of COVID-19 On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide SIPO in the United States The order closed non-essential businesses and required residents to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives This study is the first in the economics literature to estimate the effect of a statewide SIPO on public health Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 160 9 to 194 7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,566 fewer COVID-19 deaths during this period Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 649 to 703 job losses per life saved, and about 14 to16 job losses per case averted during this post-treatment period

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就地庇护令和公共卫生：来自加利福尼亚州在 COVID-19 大流行期间的证据

摘要 就地避难令 (SIPO) 是限制性最强的非药物干预措施之一，旨在遏制 COVID-19 的传播 2020 年 3 月 19 日，加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽瑟姆 (Gavin Newsom) 发布了美国第一个全州 SIPO。下令关闭非必要业务，并要求居民在除基本活动外的所有活动中避难，例如杂货店购物、从药房取药或照顾亲属 该研究是经济学文献中第一个估计全州 SIPO 影响的研究关于公共卫生 使用每日州级冠状病毒数据和综合控制研究设计，我们发现加利福尼亚州的 SIPO 到 4 月 20 日，即该命令发布后一个月，将 COVID-19 病例减少了 160 9 至每 100,000 人口 194 7。加利福尼亚'在此期间，SIPO 导致 COVID-19 死亡人数减少了多达 1,566 人 粗略的计算表明，每挽救一条生命，大约有 649 到 703 人失业，在此职位期间，每个案例避免了大约 14 到 16 人失业-治疗期