This paper studies the effects of bilateral foreign aid on conflict escalation and deescalation. First, we develop a new ordinal measure capturing the two‐sided and multifaceted nature of conflict. Second, we propose a dynamic ordered probit estimator that allows for unobserved heterogeneity and corrects for endogeneity. Third, we identify the causal effect of foreign aid on conflict by predicting bilateral aid flows based on electoral outcomes of donor countries which are exogenous to recipients. Receiving bilateral aid raises the chances of escalating from small conflict to armed conflict, but we find little evidence that aid ignites conflict in truly peaceful countries.

中文翻译：

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加剧冲突？（降级）升级和双边援助

本文研究了双边外国援助对冲突升级和升级的影响。首先，我们制定了一种新的有序措施，以反映冲突的多面性和多面性。其次，我们提出了一种动态有序概率估计器，该估计器可以实现未观察到的异质性并校正内生性。第三，我们通过根据受援国外生的捐助国的选举结果预测双边援助的流动，来确定外国援助对冲突的因果关系。接受双边援助增加了从小冲突升级为武装冲突的机会，但是我们发现没有证据表明援助会点燃真正和平国家的冲突。