This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We find that fluctuations in core inflation since the creation of the euro are well explained by three factors: expected inflation (as measured by surveys of forecasters); the output gap (as measured by the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development); and the pass‐through of movements in headline inflation. Our specification resolves the puzzle of a “missing disinflation” after the Great Recession, and it diminishes the puzzle of a “missing inflation” during the recent economic recovery.

中文翻译：

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欧元区的菲利普斯曲线

本文提出了教科书菲利普斯曲线是否可以解释欧元区核心通货膨胀的行为的问题。该分析的一个关键特征是，我们使用行业通货膨胀率的加权中位数来衡量核心通货膨胀，该波动性不如排除食品和能源价格的常规通货膨胀率波动性小。我们发现，自欧元创立以来，核心通货膨胀的波动可以用三个因素很好地解释：预期通货膨胀（由预测者的调查测得）；产出差距（由经济合作与发展组织衡量）; 以及标题通货膨胀的传递。我们的规范解决了大萧条后“通货紧缩”的难题，并减少了近期经济复苏期间“通货膨胀不足”的难题。