This article investigates the roles of psychological biases for deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities. We model these deviations through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cognitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. Direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of SSBs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness instead of optimism becomes with age an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age.

中文翻译：

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认知，乐观以及与年龄相关的生存信念的形成

本文研究心理偏见对主观生存信念（SSB）与客观生存概率之间的偏差的作用。我们通过年龄相关的逆S形概率加权函数对这些偏差进行建模。我们的估计表明，随着年龄的增长，针对认知能力弱化和相对乐观度的隐含测量值会降低。认知弱点和乐观情绪的直接测量方法也具有这些趋势。我们的回归分析证实，这些因素在SSB的形成中起着重要的定量作用。我们的主要发现是，随着年龄的增长，认知能力的弱化而非乐观变得越来越重要，这是有据可查的对高龄者生存机会的高估。