Abstract This paper offers a five-part framework for assessing why the United Kingdom has coped poorly compared with peer countries with the medical, social and economic challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic ? a surprising failure, given the strength of its scientific community and the internationally attested quality of its civil service The paper also offers a proposal for how to shape an independent inquiry, one promised by the UK Prime Minister, of the kind that has the primary motivation to better prepare the country for future crises The paper begins by providing various metrics that set out how the UK has, as of late 2020, been particularly adversely affected by the pandemic It then details the five-part framework, which is presented as a series of propositions with initial supporting evidence that require more thorough investigation, supported by a fuller record of evidence First, we suggest that there have been problems as to how evidence about the pandemic and its anticipated effects was collected, processed and circulated, weakening policymakers? ability to evaluate the risk calculus Second, particular structures and processes of government decision-making appear to have been inadequate and ill-suited to the multidimensional challenges brought by the pandemic Third, the role of political leadership and decision-making in the public health and broader policy responses needs thorough evaluation Fourth, we assess some aspects of economic policymaking during the pandemic Fifth, features of the UK's institutional make-up may have been a driver of the suboptimal outcomes Overall, we argue that UK policymakers may have over-relied on the medical sciences at the expense of other (social) scientific evidence

中文翻译：

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远非如此：自 COVID-19 以来的英国，以及学习遵循科学*

摘要 本文提供了一个由五部分组成的框架，用于评估为什么与其他国家相比，英国在应对 COVID-19 大流行带来的医疗、社会和经济挑战方面表现不佳？鉴于其科学界的实力和国际公认的公务员素质，这是一次令人惊讶的失败 这篇论文还提出了一项建议，即如何进行独立调查，这是英国首相承诺的，具有主要动机的那种调查更好地为国家应对未来危机做好准备 本文首先提供了各种指标，这些指标列出了截至 2020 年底英国如何受到大流行的特别不利影响，然后详细介绍了由五部分组成的框架，该框架以系列形式呈现需要更彻底调查的具有初步支持证据的命题，有更完整的证据记录支持 首先，我们认为在如何收集、处理和传播有关大流行及其预期影响的证据方面存在问题，削弱了决策者的力量？评估风险计算的能力 第二，政府决策的特定结构和过程似乎不够充分，不适合大流行带来的多维挑战 第三，政治领导和决策在公共卫生和更广泛的政策反应需要彻底评估第四，我们评估大流行期间经济政策制定的某些方面第五，英国机构构成的特征可能是导致次优结果的驱动因素总体而言，